GroupM has launched the ‘This Year Next Year Worldwide Media Forecast’, stating that India is the world leader among other larger media markets in advertising across mediums.
It said media is only a means to an end and the goal should be to optimise the mix of external and internal resources that drives business growth. Marketers can look at the data included here to gain a sense of the health of their media partners now and over the next several years, it added.
However, even a media owner in decline may still be investing in new and better ways to connect with audiences. At the same time, other media owners may be healthy in terms of revenue growth but may not necessarily be investing in everything they can to make their ad inventory more effective, the report added.
More broadly, it encourages marketers to continue to view media as only a means to an end. Investments in internal marketing infrastructure, marketing technology software and external services are among the other ways to support marketing excellence. Ensuring that processes are in place to optimise the balance between those elements of marketing will be more impactful than the choice to invest or stay away from any one type of media as it grows or declines in the years ahead.
The report reveals that India will continue to give a stellar performance in terms of numbers with high single digits. The growth rate in ad spends is estimated +12–13% each year from 2020 to 2024, similar to 2019 levels. India along with Brazil is expected to overtake France’s position in terms of advertising numbers.
Prasanth Kumar, CEO, GroupM South Asia, said, “In 2020, India faces challenges and uncertainties across sectors, just like other markets. However, this also brings opportunities for brands to innovate. This will be propelled by greater use of technology and better content across media.”
The report also said the global economy has weakened in 2019 and will remain similarly soft in 2020. Despite solid growth in the US and UK, it predicts deceleration in advertising growth this year vs. 2018 and in 2020 vs. 2019.
Global advertising, excluding US political advertising (large enough to distort global growth rates by +/-1% each year), expanded by +5.7% in constant currency terms during 2018, capping the third year of better than +5% growth and the best year of the current economic cycle. However, 2019 appears set to grow nearly a percentage point slower, at +4.8%, and growth is expected to slow by another percentage point in 2020 and 2021.
The report forcasts +3.9% growth next year and +3.1% growth the following year. Growth is expected to range between +3–4% through 2024. Although worse than recent years, it noted that this would amount to a similar pace of growth to what was observed during 2012–2014. It estimated that the total global advertising market during 2020 will amount to $628 billion, but would likely approach $700 billion on a broader definition that includes spending on direct mail and directories around the world.